This paper quantifies the impact of future droughts in Colombia by calculating the economic costs for the country of the El Niño phenomenon that occurred in 2015. In particular, this paper estimates the effects that a decrease in water resources-product of a climate variability event such as El Niño-has on economic sectors, and values the loss of the forest ecosystem generated by forest fires.
The results indicate that a 20% reduction in water quantities and a 4.5% increase in electricity prices together impact 0.6% of GDP. Meanwhile, the ecosystem services that forests cease to provide to the economy when there is a loss of vegetation cover as a result of fires were valued at 0.1% of GDP for 2015 alone. In this sense, not taking measures to adapt to variability has costs of at least 0.7% of GDP.
Authors:
Sioux Fanny Melo.
Leidy Riveros.
Germán Romero.
Andrés Camilo Álvarez.
Carolina Díaz.
Silvia Liliana Calderon.
Document Link: https://colaboracion.dnp.gov.co/CDT/Estudios%20Econmicos/466.pdf
